http://dshort.com/articles/Kimble/100915-Dow-70-Year-Resistance.html
Showing posts with label stock market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stock market. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Long Term Graph of Dow
http://dshort.com/articles/Kimble/100915-Dow-70-Year-Resistance.html
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Sunday, August 2, 2009
Time to Buy?
It is amazing that anyone would go long an equity market with a reported P/E multiple of 700x but that is indeed what we have on our hands. The end of the recession and the onset of a sustainable recovery, as we saw in 2002, are not the same thing. So this could still end badly but we will await confirmation signs that this is more than a very flashy bear market rally before shifting gears.” ― David Rosenberg, Chief Economist Gluskin, Sheff in a note to clients July 31
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Omaba! - Places new taxes on US Corporations
Omaba! announced new taxes on US corporations. I think their earnings will get hit with these new taxes. If earnings are affected negatively, then stock prices will fall. I do not think that the market will continue with its recent rally given that corporations are facing higher taxes.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Stock Market Disconnect
From The Dr Housing Bubble - April 19, 2009
The stock market at least in its current form is a horrible indicator of the actual economic carnage falling upon the majority of Americans. Most Americans are witnessing the current rally and wondering why the massive run up (largely in financial related stocks) is going forward while they are getting called into supervisor offices behind closed doors and being laid off or seeing their hours cut back. Wall Street has completely disconnected from Main Street. It is also hard for many to understand how they are having their limited income being taxed to finance the bailouts of Wall Street and financial cronies while they are asked to do more with less. They are seeing these same institutions, alive because of the massive funding from the American people since our government ideally should reflect the will of the majority, shut off credit lines and raise rates while the government through the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve showers the banks and Wall Street with easy low rate financing thanks to the American taxpayer. Welcome to the new America. Where unemployment is good news for Wall Street and bailouts are now seen as a new source of revenue for financial companies. New accounting students will learn how to incorporate bailout funds as a new source of revenue.
The stock market at least in its current form is a horrible indicator of the actual economic carnage falling upon the majority of Americans. Most Americans are witnessing the current rally and wondering why the massive run up (largely in financial related stocks) is going forward while they are getting called into supervisor offices behind closed doors and being laid off or seeing their hours cut back. Wall Street has completely disconnected from Main Street. It is also hard for many to understand how they are having their limited income being taxed to finance the bailouts of Wall Street and financial cronies while they are asked to do more with less. They are seeing these same institutions, alive because of the massive funding from the American people since our government ideally should reflect the will of the majority, shut off credit lines and raise rates while the government through the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve showers the banks and Wall Street with easy low rate financing thanks to the American taxpayer. Welcome to the new America. Where unemployment is good news for Wall Street and bailouts are now seen as a new source of revenue for financial companies. New accounting students will learn how to incorporate bailout funds as a new source of revenue.
Monday, April 13, 2009
Why We're Not at the Beginning of the End, and Probably Not Even At the End of the Beginning
Robert Reich was the nation's 22nd Secretary of Labor and is a professor at the University of California at Berkeley. His latest book is "Supercapitalism." This is his personal journal.
....everyone with a stock portfolio wants to see it grow again. But wishing for something is different from getting it. And cockeyed optimism can wreak enormous damage on an economy. Haven't we already learned this?
....everyone with a stock portfolio wants to see it grow again. But wishing for something is different from getting it. And cockeyed optimism can wreak enormous damage on an economy. Haven't we already learned this?
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Fed Ignites Markets with...
Quantitative easing (printing money). Interest rates fall, Bonds are up, Stock Markets up and of course with printing of money, Gold and Gold Stocks rocket up. Gold stocks up ~10% on the day.
Is it surprise? Think not....it was just a matter of time. We know the new US administration and direction that it is heading and what it means. So....there are no real surprises coming.
China must be real happy.
US Fed to Buy $300 Billion of Longer-Term Treasuries
Is it surprise? Think not....it was just a matter of time. We know the new US administration and direction that it is heading and what it means. So....there are no real surprises coming.
China must be real happy.
US Fed to Buy $300 Billion of Longer-Term Treasuries
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Obama Declares War on Investors, Entrepreneurs, Businesses, And More
Posted By: Larry Kudlow | Anchor
cnbc.com | 27 Feb 2009 | 04:39 PM ET
Let me be very clear on the economics of President Obama’s State of the Union speech and his budget.
He is declaring war on investors, entrepreneurs, small businesses, large corporations, and private-equity and venture-capital funds.
That is the meaning of his anti-growth tax-hike proposals, which make absolutely no sense at all — either for this recession or from the standpoint of expanding our economy’s long-run potential to grow.
Raising the marginal tax rate on successful earners, capital, dividends, and all the private funds is a function of Obama’s left-wing social vision, and a repudiation of his economic-recovery statements. Ditto for his sweeping government-planning-and-spending program, which will wind up raising federal outlays as a share of GDP to at least 30 percent, if not more, over the next 10 years.
This is nearly double the government-spending low-point reached during the late 1990s by the Gingrich Congress and the Clinton administration. While not quite as high as spending levels in Western Europe, we regrettably will be gaining on this statist-planning approach.
Study after study over the past several decades has shown how countries that spend more produce less, while nations that tax less produce more. Obama is doing it wrong on both counts.
And as far as middle-class tax cuts are concerned, Obama’s cap-and-trade program will be a huge across-the-board tax increase on blue-collar workers, including unionized workers. Industrial production is plunging, but new carbon taxes will prevent production from ever recovering. While the country wants more fuel and power, cap-and-trade will deliver less.
The tax hikes will generate lower growth and fewer revenues. Yes, the economy will recover. But Obama’s rosy scenario of 4 percent recovery growth in the out years of his budget is not likely to occur. The combination of easy money from the Fed and below-potential economic growth is a prescription for stagflation. That’s one of the messages of the falling stock market.
Essentially, the Obama economic policies represent a major Democratic party relapse into Great Society social spending and taxing. It is a return to the LBJ/Nixon era, and a move away from the Reagan/Clinton period. House Republicans, fortunately, are 90 days sober, as they are putting up a valiant fight to stop the big-government onslaught and move the GOP back to first principles.
Noteworthy up here on Wall Street, a great many Obama supporters — especially hedge-fund types who voted for “change” — are becoming disillusioned with the performances of Obama and Treasury man Geithner.
There is a growing sense of buyer’s remorse.
Well then, do conservatives dare say: We told you so?
© 2009 CNBC, Inc. All Rights Reserved
URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/29434104/
cnbc.com | 27 Feb 2009 | 04:39 PM ET
Let me be very clear on the economics of President Obama’s State of the Union speech and his budget.
He is declaring war on investors, entrepreneurs, small businesses, large corporations, and private-equity and venture-capital funds.
That is the meaning of his anti-growth tax-hike proposals, which make absolutely no sense at all — either for this recession or from the standpoint of expanding our economy’s long-run potential to grow.
Raising the marginal tax rate on successful earners, capital, dividends, and all the private funds is a function of Obama’s left-wing social vision, and a repudiation of his economic-recovery statements. Ditto for his sweeping government-planning-and-spending program, which will wind up raising federal outlays as a share of GDP to at least 30 percent, if not more, over the next 10 years.
This is nearly double the government-spending low-point reached during the late 1990s by the Gingrich Congress and the Clinton administration. While not quite as high as spending levels in Western Europe, we regrettably will be gaining on this statist-planning approach.
Study after study over the past several decades has shown how countries that spend more produce less, while nations that tax less produce more. Obama is doing it wrong on both counts.
And as far as middle-class tax cuts are concerned, Obama’s cap-and-trade program will be a huge across-the-board tax increase on blue-collar workers, including unionized workers. Industrial production is plunging, but new carbon taxes will prevent production from ever recovering. While the country wants more fuel and power, cap-and-trade will deliver less.
The tax hikes will generate lower growth and fewer revenues. Yes, the economy will recover. But Obama’s rosy scenario of 4 percent recovery growth in the out years of his budget is not likely to occur. The combination of easy money from the Fed and below-potential economic growth is a prescription for stagflation. That’s one of the messages of the falling stock market.
Essentially, the Obama economic policies represent a major Democratic party relapse into Great Society social spending and taxing. It is a return to the LBJ/Nixon era, and a move away from the Reagan/Clinton period. House Republicans, fortunately, are 90 days sober, as they are putting up a valiant fight to stop the big-government onslaught and move the GOP back to first principles.
Noteworthy up here on Wall Street, a great many Obama supporters — especially hedge-fund types who voted for “change” — are becoming disillusioned with the performances of Obama and Treasury man Geithner.
There is a growing sense of buyer’s remorse.
Well then, do conservatives dare say: We told you so?
© 2009 CNBC, Inc. All Rights Reserved
URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/29434104/
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Berkshire Hathaway....Not Doing Great Either
Berkshire Hathaway has worst year in company's history, results show
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Chairman Warren Buffett told shareholders Saturday that the economy would remain in "shambles" during 2009 and beyond, offering no prediction about the future may hold for U.S. stocks.
In his annual letter to shareholders -- eagerly anticipated by investors for the insights it may hold into his thinking -- Buffett said neither he nor Charlie Munger, his long-time partner in running Omaha-based Berkshire (BRKBBerkshire Hathaway Inc can predict winning and losing years in advance -- and no one else can either.
"We're certain, for example, that the economy will be in shambles throughout 2009 -- and, for that matter, probably well beyond -- but that conclusion does not tell us whether the stock market will rise or fall," Buffett wrote.
Buffett, known as the "Oracle of Omaha," admitted to mistakes last year. "During 2008 I did some dumb things in investments," he said. One such error, he said, was the purchase of a large amount of Conoco Phillips Inc. stock when oil and gas prices were nearing peak levels.
"I in no way anticipated the dramatic fall in energy prices that occurred in the last half of the year," he said. "I still believe the odds are good that oil sells far higher in the future than the current $40-to-$50 price. But so far I have been dead wrong. Even if prices should rise, moreover, the terrible timing of my purchase has cost Berkshire several billion dollars."
Buffett also said his acquisition of shares in two Irish banks have turned out badly -- with losses of more than 89%.
On the positive side, the investor is pleased with buys totaling $14.5 million in fixed-income securities issued by General Electric Co.
We very much like these commitments, which carry high current yields that, in themselves, make the investments more than satisfactory. But in each of these three purchases, we also acquired a substantial equity participation as a bonus."
The per-share book value of both Class A and Class B shares of Berkshire fell 9.6%, Buffett said.
The company's net income fell to $4.99 billion from $13.21 billion in 2007.
The 78-year-old billionaire said that although the market value of bonds and stocks the company still holds have dropped dramatically along with the broader market, Berkshire is not bothered by those decreases. "Indeed, we enjoy such price declines if we have funds available to increase our positions. ... Whether we're talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down."
On the lookout for inflation 'Whatever the downsides may be, strong and immediate action by government was essential last year if the financial system was to avoid a total breakdown. Had that occurred, the consequences for every area of our economy would have been cataclysmic. Like it or not, the inhabitants of Wall Street, Main Street and the various Side Streets of America were all in the same boat.'
— Warren Buffett
Commenting on the federal government's actions to resolve the economic crisis, Buffett said: "Economic medicine that was previously meted out by the cupful has recently been dispensed by the barrel. These once-unthinkable dosages will almost certainly bring on unwelcome aftereffects."
Inflation is likely to be one such effect, Buffett said.
"Moreover, major industries have become dependent on federal assistance, and they will be followed by cities and states bearing mind-boggling requests. Weaning these entities from the public teat will be a political challenge. They won't leave willingly."
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Chairman Warren Buffett told shareholders Saturday that the economy would remain in "shambles" during 2009 and beyond, offering no prediction about the future may hold for U.S. stocks.
In his annual letter to shareholders -- eagerly anticipated by investors for the insights it may hold into his thinking -- Buffett said neither he nor Charlie Munger, his long-time partner in running Omaha-based Berkshire (BRKBBerkshire Hathaway Inc can predict winning and losing years in advance -- and no one else can either.
"We're certain, for example, that the economy will be in shambles throughout 2009 -- and, for that matter, probably well beyond -- but that conclusion does not tell us whether the stock market will rise or fall," Buffett wrote.
Buffett, known as the "Oracle of Omaha," admitted to mistakes last year. "During 2008 I did some dumb things in investments," he said. One such error, he said, was the purchase of a large amount of Conoco Phillips Inc. stock when oil and gas prices were nearing peak levels.
"I in no way anticipated the dramatic fall in energy prices that occurred in the last half of the year," he said. "I still believe the odds are good that oil sells far higher in the future than the current $40-to-$50 price. But so far I have been dead wrong. Even if prices should rise, moreover, the terrible timing of my purchase has cost Berkshire several billion dollars."
Buffett also said his acquisition of shares in two Irish banks have turned out badly -- with losses of more than 89%.
On the positive side, the investor is pleased with buys totaling $14.5 million in fixed-income securities issued by General Electric Co.
We very much like these commitments, which carry high current yields that, in themselves, make the investments more than satisfactory. But in each of these three purchases, we also acquired a substantial equity participation as a bonus."
The per-share book value of both Class A and Class B shares of Berkshire fell 9.6%, Buffett said.
The company's net income fell to $4.99 billion from $13.21 billion in 2007.
The 78-year-old billionaire said that although the market value of bonds and stocks the company still holds have dropped dramatically along with the broader market, Berkshire is not bothered by those decreases. "Indeed, we enjoy such price declines if we have funds available to increase our positions. ... Whether we're talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down."
On the lookout for inflation 'Whatever the downsides may be, strong and immediate action by government was essential last year if the financial system was to avoid a total breakdown. Had that occurred, the consequences for every area of our economy would have been cataclysmic. Like it or not, the inhabitants of Wall Street, Main Street and the various Side Streets of America were all in the same boat.'
— Warren Buffett
Commenting on the federal government's actions to resolve the economic crisis, Buffett said: "Economic medicine that was previously meted out by the cupful has recently been dispensed by the barrel. These once-unthinkable dosages will almost certainly bring on unwelcome aftereffects."
Inflation is likely to be one such effect, Buffett said.
"Moreover, major industries have become dependent on federal assistance, and they will be followed by cities and states bearing mind-boggling requests. Weaning these entities from the public teat will be a political challenge. They won't leave willingly."
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)