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Showing posts with label Deflation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Deflation. Show all posts

Monday, June 28, 2010

RBS tells clients to prepare for 'monster' money-printing by the Federal Reserve - Telegraph

Hey! Conventional investment advisors are now warning us....Central Banks will be printing money.  What have you done to get ready?  Personally, it looks like first a collapse (debt deflation/depression) follow quickly by government printing.  Economies and finances will be in a mess.     
RBS tells clients to prepare for 'monster' money-printing by the Federal Reserve - Telegraph

Saturday, May 8, 2010

Deflation Investment Strategy: 5 Things You Should Know — The Contrary Investing Report

Deflation or actually depression investment strategy.

It is simple.

Stay with Cash, US Treasuries (maybe gold will be ok). Everything else is going down (stocks, oil, commodities etc).

I hope this guy is not right.

Deflation Investment Strategy: 5 Things You Should Know — The Contrary Investing Report

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

History lesson for economists in thrall to Keynes

Very good points by Niall Ferguson regarding why interest rates will be going up.
*****************

From the FT London May 29, 2009 By Niall Ferguson May 29, 2009

On Wednesday last week, yields on 10-year
US Treasuries generally seen as the benchmark for long-term interest rates rose above 3.73 per cent. Once upon a time that would have been considered rather low. But the financial crisis has changed all that: at the end of last year, the yield on the 10-year fell to 2.06 per cent. In other words, long-term rates have risen by 167 basis points in the space of five months. In relative terms, that represents an 81 per cent jump.

Most commentators were unnerved by this development, coinciding as it did with warnings about the fiscal health of the US. For me, however, it was good news. For it settled a rather public argument between me and the Princeton economist Paul Krugman.

....Of course, Mr Krugman knew what I meant. “The only thing that might drive up interest rates,” he acknowledged during our debate, “is that people may grow dubious about the financial solvency of governments.” Might? May? The fact is that people not least the Chinese government are already distinctly dubious.

....The policy mistake has already been made to adopt the fiscal policy of a world war to fight a recession. In the absence of credible commitments to end the chronic US structural deficit, there will be further upward pressure on interest rates, despite the glut of global savings



Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Inflation or Deflation? That is the Question.

I think we all recognize that we are in a time of change. The leader of the US has promised change. We are all beginning to wonder what this change will actually be. Some are now having second thoughts for voting for change. We are where we are now. And the question is where are things going.

I do think we are in for change...we have seen it start. What I am assessing is what will this change be. Will it be more of the same? I think we can easily concluded that the answer is no. We are in a major state of change...more financially, economically and politically. This change could have serious and significant affect upon us all.

I have been thinking about this for some time, concerned with the situation. The question that we all need to ask ourselves and assess is whether the change will be (1) inflationary or deflationary or (2) hyper inflation or Great Depression 2.

I reject the first option of inflationary/deflation case. We are not in a situation that we will have either moderate inflation or deflation/recession.

The current environment indicates major forces in play; with economic events that have not been seen for 50-80 years.

So what will it be? HyperInflation or the Great Depression 2? Or will all of the action by the governments be successfull and return us to the norm?

Enough for now. Post your comments...what do you think? And what do you think should be done, and what are you doing ?

Sunday, March 22, 2009

Quant Easing: Central Banks Unleash the 'Nuclear' Option

Printing Money....Is this really the solution to the financial and economic problems?

Well, the Central Banks and Government think that is the only solution left. That is somewhat of a concern, isn't it? I do not think the people really think that is a good answer. No one wants hyper inflation; that is just a crazy environment that no one enjoys. It is a wealth destoyer.

I think we and the governments need to be honest. There are no quick fixes. We have over spent; and the debt that has been created needs to be reduced to a more reasonable level. The solution of more spending and more debt does not solve the problem.

The solution of QE or printing money, is not a real solution. It is a fraud; and it it is accepted then, the economy will suffer more.

More on QE -
Desperate times call for desperate measures. As the global “credit crunch” has grown increasingly severe, central bankers are examining the Great Depression of the 1930s for possible parallels that are relevant to today’s situation. Most worrisome, is the synchronized meltdown of the global stock markets, which had wiped-out $32-trillion of wealth, on top of another $10-trillion in losses in real estate.