Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Monday, June 14, 2010
Why This Bull Market Is FINISHED
From the Business Insider, 12 Charts that show why this bull market is finished.
12 Charts That Show Why This Bull Market Is FINISHED
12 Charts That Show Why This Bull Market Is FINISHED
Waxman Letter to Hayward Cites BP 'Shortcuts' - WSJ.com
If this is true, then it will not be very good for BP.
Waxman Letter to Hayward Cites BP 'Shortcuts' - WSJ.com
Waxman Letter to Hayward Cites BP 'Shortcuts' - WSJ.com
Dr. Doom of the Gulf Coast spill
Matt Simmons, a bit of an oil expert, believes BP will be heading for Chapter 11 within the month given that the oil spill is much larger than most think.
However, Matt Simmon's investment banking company, Simmons & Co, has changed its rating on BP to outperform from neutral. Hmmmm.....
Matt Simmons, Dr. Doom of the Gulf Coast spill - Jun. 9, 2010
However, Matt Simmon's investment banking company, Simmons & Co, has changed its rating on BP to outperform from neutral. Hmmmm.....
Matt Simmons, Dr. Doom of the Gulf Coast spill - Jun. 9, 2010
Sunday, June 13, 2010
Seven Reasons to Love the Euro
Euro is oversold, due for bounce.
Seven Reasons to Love the Euro - MarketBeat - WSJ
Seven Reasons to Love the Euro - MarketBeat - WSJ
17 Reasons to own Gold
17 reasons to own Gold - John Embry
John Embry SAM LP.pdf (application/pdf Object)
John Embry SAM LP.pdf (application/pdf Object)
Easy Portfolio
Here is an easy portfolio to manage which outperforms 75% of the investment advisers for long period of time. It was developed in the 1980's and is still valid today. Returns were 12% then and now about 8%, which is pretty good, and that is with low volatility.
the Exchange Newsletter -- An Information Source for eSignal Subscribers
the Exchange Newsletter -- An Information Source for eSignal Subscribers
Friday, June 11, 2010
BP’s Mess, and Wall Street’s - What do they have in common?
What does BP and Wall Street have in common?
It is the ability to take on too much risk without consequences.
I do not think more government regulation solves the problem. However, if there was the personal liability or risk then managers would make different decisions. Wall Street investment banks were around for decades, through very difficult time when they were organized as a partnership. However, when they converted to a corporation, then these formerly successful banks' management took on hugh additional risks in order to reward themselves.
BP’s Mess, and Wall Street’s - Opinionator Blog - NYTimes.com
It is the ability to take on too much risk without consequences.
I do not think more government regulation solves the problem. However, if there was the personal liability or risk then managers would make different decisions. Wall Street investment banks were around for decades, through very difficult time when they were organized as a partnership. However, when they converted to a corporation, then these formerly successful banks' management took on hugh additional risks in order to reward themselves.
BP’s Mess, and Wall Street’s - Opinionator Blog - NYTimes.com
Some home truths on oil for a president showing the strain
From the UK's Financial Times.....a view on how Omaba is handling the Gulf oil situation
InfoViewer: Some home truths on oil for a president showing the strain
InfoViewer: Some home truths on oil for a president showing the strain
Solar Power Getting Cheaper
That would be great if solar would become economical. A new photovoltaic solar cell.
Solar Energy May Soon Get Much Cheaper | Oil Price.com
Solar Energy May Soon Get Much Cheaper | Oil Price.com
U.S. asset managers worried Obama could confiscate gold
Be careful where you have your gold. It was once illegal for US citizens to own gold. Do not think it could not happen again. There is a risk of owing gold.
Mineweb.com - The world's premier mining and mining investment website U.S. asset managers worried Obama could confiscate gold - POLITICAL ECONOMY | Mineweb
Mineweb.com - The world's premier mining and mining investment website U.S. asset managers worried Obama could confiscate gold - POLITICAL ECONOMY | Mineweb
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Sunday, June 6, 2010
Saturday, June 5, 2010
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Why value value?--Defending against crises
I thought this was pretty good short article by McKinsey on Value, Bubbles, the Financial Crisis, Leverage, the Equity and Credit markets and fundamental flaws by governments, managers, and investors.
Solution - It is to get back to the basics of adding value - increasing cash flows. It is not financial manipulations or engineering.
I think there has been and continues to be a misallocation of capital into the financial markets. The financial markets are not what they should be. It is now a casino. For example, Goldman is making its money by trading. That by definition, does not add value to the economy.
Why value value?--defending against crises - McKinsey Quarterly - Corporate Finance - Valuation
Solution - It is to get back to the basics of adding value - increasing cash flows. It is not financial manipulations or engineering.
I think there has been and continues to be a misallocation of capital into the financial markets. The financial markets are not what they should be. It is now a casino. For example, Goldman is making its money by trading. That by definition, does not add value to the economy.
Why value value?--defending against crises - McKinsey Quarterly - Corporate Finance - Valuation
Sunday, May 30, 2010
BP’s Gulf fiasco
BP a take over target? New management?
BP’s Gulf fiasco makes it vulnerable to a takeover Analysis & Opinion
BP’s Gulf fiasco makes it vulnerable to a takeover Analysis & Opinion
Saturday, May 29, 2010
Friday, May 28, 2010
Market Recap: DJIA Suffers Worst May Performance in 70 Years
The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 7.9% for the month, marking its worst May performance since 1940. Concern over Spain's debt and unemployment levels.
Market Recap: DJIA Suffers Worst May Performance in 70 Years
Market Recap: DJIA Suffers Worst May Performance in 70 Years
Higher Gold Prices - World Gold Council
Demand for Gold is increasing even at these higher prices.
World Gold Council Sees Ever Greater Demand For Gold, As "Consumers Become Accustomed To Higher Prices" zero hedge
World Gold Council Sees Ever Greater Demand For Gold, As "Consumers Become Accustomed To Higher Prices" zero hedge
Thursday, May 27, 2010
BP Used Riskier Method to Seal Oil Well Before Blast - NYTimes.com
Hmmmm......this is disappointing news
BP Used Riskier Method to Seal Oil Well Before Blast - NYTimes.com
BP Used Riskier Method to Seal Oil Well Before Blast - NYTimes.com
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
30-40% CORRECTION?
Today, David Rosenberg discussed the possibility of a 30-40% correction in the equity markets. Rosenberg thinks we could go as low as 850 on the S&P:
CAN WE EXPECT A 30-40% CORRECTION? | PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM
“There have only been two other times when the stock market ran parabolically up from a low in barely over a year, as was the case this time around (+80% from March 2009 to April 2010): the 112% surge from June 1, 1932 to September 7, 1932; and the 116% runup from March 2, 1933 to July 18, 1933. In the first case, we had a 40% correction and in the second, the correction was 34%. So, we are talking here about the prospect of a pretty hefty reversal in the S&P 500 that could very easily take the index down to as low as 850, if the history of these types of givebacks is any indication.”
CAN WE EXPECT A 30-40% CORRECTION? | PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM
PIMCO - Bill Gross June 2010 Investment Outlook
You load sixteen tons, what do you get?
Another day older and deeper in debt.
Saint Peter, don’t you call me ‘cause I can’t go;
I owe my soul to the company store.
– Tennessee Ernie Ford
From Bill Gross of PimcoAnother day older and deeper in debt.
Saint Peter, don’t you call me ‘cause I can’t go;
I owe my soul to the company store.
– Tennessee Ernie Ford
Debt will get you in trouble – on both sides of the dollar bill as Shakespeare wisely counseled long ago: Neither a lender nor a borrower be. That probably seems like a strange admonition coming from a guy who helps to lend $1 trillion of it – and I suppose it is. But there was a time back in 1968 when lending got me in lots of trouble – deep doo-doo, to tell you the truth – and I’ve regretted it ever since. I was a Naval officer back then, sailing between the Mekong Delta and Manila Bay........
PIMCO - Bill Gross June 2010 Investment Outlook
Shale Gas
Shale gas supply coming on strong.
Shale Gas Costing 2/3 Less Than OPEC Oil Incites Water Concern - Bloomberg.com
Shale Gas Costing 2/3 Less Than OPEC Oil Incites Water Concern - Bloomberg.com
Jim Roger's views
See link for Jim Roger's view of China, US, UK and Australia.
"Plato said in The Republic that the way societies revolve is they go from dictatorship to oligarchy, to democracy, to chaos and back to dictatorship.'' China, according to Rogers, is in the early stages of oligarchy. And, America, if it's not careful, is heading for chaos.
Reserve earns praise, but not our politicians
"Plato said in The Republic that the way societies revolve is they go from dictatorship to oligarchy, to democracy, to chaos and back to dictatorship.'' China, according to Rogers, is in the early stages of oligarchy. And, America, if it's not careful, is heading for chaos.
Reserve earns praise, but not our politicians
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
BP - Congress Spars Over Cap on Spill Claims - WSJ.com
BP will be hurting big time once the govt finishes with them.
Congress Spars Over Cap on Spill Claims - WSJ.com
Congress Spars Over Cap on Spill Claims - WSJ.com
Monday, May 24, 2010
Digital Photocopiers Loaded With Secrets - CBS Evening News - CBS News
Wow! All documents copied on a photocopier can be retrieved!
Be careful what you photocopy.
Digital Photocopiers Loaded With Secrets - CBS Evening News - CBS News
Be careful what you photocopy.
Digital Photocopiers Loaded With Secrets - CBS Evening News - CBS News
Short S&P 500
Short the S&P now....let those profits run.
How to Short the S&P 500 via Futures Markets — The Contrary Investing Report
How to Short the S&P 500 via Futures Markets — The Contrary Investing Report
U.K. budget cutting begins with $8.3 billion slice - MarketWatch
Will see if the minority UK govt has the political will to reduce govt spending and start living within its means.
U.K. budget cutting begins with $8.3 billion slice - MarketWatch
U.K. budget cutting begins with $8.3 billion slice - MarketWatch
Deficit Crisis Threatens Ample Benefits of European Life - NYTimes.com
There is a limit to Govt spending and promises.
Payback Time - Deficit Crisis Threatens Ample Benefits of European Life - NYTimes.com
Payback Time - Deficit Crisis Threatens Ample Benefits of European Life - NYTimes.com
Friday, May 21, 2010
Monday, May 17, 2010
With Local Gold Inventories Depleted, Panicking German Dealers Stage Run On Krugerrands | zero hedge
Hmmm.....maybe one needs to think about this....having a bit of Gold probably not bad insurance.
We all know paper money is just that.....paper. The value is what it can buy.
With Local Gold Inventories Depleted, Panicking German Dealers Stage Run On Krugerrands zero hedge
We all know paper money is just that.....paper. The value is what it can buy.
With Local Gold Inventories Depleted, Panicking German Dealers Stage Run On Krugerrands zero hedge
Sunday, May 16, 2010
The Cost of Driving, World-wide
Glad to see that the UK does not have the most expensive gasline in the world. It is Uruguay.
The UK is second place being $0.03 per liter less than Uruguay.
The Cost of Driving, World-wide
The UK is second place being $0.03 per liter less than Uruguay.
The Cost of Driving, World-wide
Peak Oil: The End | Jutia Group
Interesting read on energy.
Also made one comment that during the next 5-7 years, 2/3 of the oil and gas work force will be retiring.
Peak Oil: The End Jutia Group
Also made one comment that during the next 5-7 years, 2/3 of the oil and gas work force will be retiring.
Peak Oil: The End Jutia Group
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Billionaire Ambani Says $100 Crude Oil to Be New Norm (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Hmmm....interesting idea - Dec 2018 Call Option on Oil at $100/bbl
Billionaire Ambani Says $100 Crude Oil to Be New Norm (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Billionaire Ambani Says $100 Crude Oil to Be New Norm (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Friday, May 14, 2010
Bets on Euro Decline at a Record on Concern Bailout May Fail - Bloomberg.com
I was thinking of shorting the Euro, waiting for the bounce up after the $1 trillion bailout. Did not expect that the bounce would only be part of a day. Everyone is wise to what is happening and the Euro continues its fall. It is falling too fast for me to put on a position. Now about $1.235....wow! Reading that the target is par with the USD. Will it have a bounce up so one can short or will it continue to slide down.
Bets on Euro Decline at a Record on Concern Bailout May Fail - Bloomberg.com
Bets on Euro Decline at a Record on Concern Bailout May Fail - Bloomberg.com
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Austrian Mint gold sales surge on panic buying - GOLD NEWS | Mineweb
Purchasing of gold by Europeans heating up in April 2010.
Austrian Mint gold sales surge on panic buying - GOLD NEWS Mineweb
Austrian Mint gold sales surge on panic buying - GOLD NEWS Mineweb
Deepwater Horizon Rig Disaster Threatens Drilling (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Good article on the Deepwater Rig Disaster
It is a real shame what damage this disaster has caused. It effectively will limit offshore drilling in the US.
Gotta wonder about role of BP and its contractors. Understand that BOP (blowout preventor) used is single shut off valve whereas in the North Sea, the BOPs have two shut off valves. Seems elementary to me. There are other stories that the BOP was leaking and dead battery, not tested, etc. But, need to wait and get all the facts in.
Deepwater Horizon Rig Disaster Threatens Drilling (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
It is a real shame what damage this disaster has caused. It effectively will limit offshore drilling in the US.
Gotta wonder about role of BP and its contractors. Understand that BOP (blowout preventor) used is single shut off valve whereas in the North Sea, the BOPs have two shut off valves. Seems elementary to me. There are other stories that the BOP was leaking and dead battery, not tested, etc. But, need to wait and get all the facts in.
Deepwater Horizon Rig Disaster Threatens Drilling (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Volcanic Eruptions: Is Nature Set to Crush Global Warming? | Oil Price.com
Will Iceland's volcanos start a cooling trend?
Volcanic Eruptions: Is Nature Set to Crush Global Warming? Oil Price.com
Volcanic Eruptions: Is Nature Set to Crush Global Warming? Oil Price.com
Monday, May 10, 2010
Crude oil is looking gassed - is it in the process of topping?
Oil prices broke the 200 day moving average.
Sunday, May 9, 2010
Richard Russell: “Be prepared!” » Investment Postcards from Cape Town
Be prepared.....more could be coming!
Richard Russell: “Be prepared!” » Investment Postcards from Cape Town
Richard Russell: “Be prepared!” » Investment Postcards from Cape Town
Saturday, May 8, 2010
ARE THE INFLATIONISTAS RIGHT? | PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM
Another view that it is deflation / depression that we are facing.
ARE THE INFLATIONISTAS RIGHT? PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM
ARE THE INFLATIONISTAS RIGHT? PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM
Deflation Investment Strategy: 5 Things You Should Know — The Contrary Investing Report
Deflation or actually depression investment strategy.
It is simple.
Stay with Cash, US Treasuries (maybe gold will be ok). Everything else is going down (stocks, oil, commodities etc).
I hope this guy is not right.
Deflation Investment Strategy: 5 Things You Should Know — The Contrary Investing Report
It is simple.
Stay with Cash, US Treasuries (maybe gold will be ok). Everything else is going down (stocks, oil, commodities etc).
I hope this guy is not right.
Deflation Investment Strategy: 5 Things You Should Know — The Contrary Investing Report
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
BP Stock Looks Cheap
For those daring, BP is off about $10 per share from $61 to $51. Market cap dropped $30 billion.
Yield is 6%.
Exxon paid $4 billion for their oil clean up 20 years ago, today that is $7 billion. Now this one is in the Gulf, so bet ya the costs will be at least double.
So....may be something to watch, as well, the general market. Seems bit toppy here.
I would wait....I think BP will be taken to the "cleaners"...so bit lower prices
Brett Arends on BP - WSJ.com
Yield is 6%.
Exxon paid $4 billion for their oil clean up 20 years ago, today that is $7 billion. Now this one is in the Gulf, so bet ya the costs will be at least double.
So....may be something to watch, as well, the general market. Seems bit toppy here.
I would wait....I think BP will be taken to the "cleaners"...so bit lower prices
Brett Arends on BP - WSJ.com
CARPE DIEM: Quote of the Day/Century
From Mark J. Perry's Carpe Diem:
"The champions of socialism call themselves progressives, but they recommend a system which is characterized by rigid observance of routine and by a resistance to every kind of improvement.
They call themselves liberals, but they are intent upon abolishing liberty. They call themselves democrats, but they yearn for dictatorship.
They call themselves revolutionaries, but they want to make the government omnipotent.
They promise the blessings of the Garden of Eden, but they plan to transform the world into a gigantic post office. Every man but a subordinate clerk in a bureau. What an alluring utopia!
What a noble cause to fight!Against all this frenzy of agitation there is but one weapon available: reason. Just common sense is needed to prevent man from falling prey to illusory fantasies and empty catchwords."
From "Bureaucracy" by Ludwig von Mises (1944)
CARPE DIEM: Quote of the Day/Century
"The champions of socialism call themselves progressives, but they recommend a system which is characterized by rigid observance of routine and by a resistance to every kind of improvement.
They call themselves liberals, but they are intent upon abolishing liberty. They call themselves democrats, but they yearn for dictatorship.
They call themselves revolutionaries, but they want to make the government omnipotent.
They promise the blessings of the Garden of Eden, but they plan to transform the world into a gigantic post office. Every man but a subordinate clerk in a bureau. What an alluring utopia!
What a noble cause to fight!Against all this frenzy of agitation there is but one weapon available: reason. Just common sense is needed to prevent man from falling prey to illusory fantasies and empty catchwords."
From "Bureaucracy" by Ludwig von Mises (1944)
CARPE DIEM: Quote of the Day/Century
Monday, May 3, 2010
Sunday, May 2, 2010
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