Crude oil is looking gassed - is it in the process of topping?

Oil prices broke the 200 day moving average.

Oil prices rise as Goldman turns bullish

Crude oil prices rose by more than $1 on Thursday, rebounding after a sharp fall in the previous session and leading a rally across commodity markets.

Base metals and agricultural commodities rose while gold stabilised after dropping in Wednesday’s session.

Oil Stock - Time to Buy?

Jeff Clark From Growth Stock Wire
May 12, 2009

The oil rally is solid.

The price of a barrel of West Texas Crude is up 100% since its bottom last December. By the look of the following chart, there are more gains to come...


The chart has broken above resistance at $55, and there should be enough momentum to take it all the way to $70. So if you're long oil, then stay long.

But if you're thinking about buying oil stocks now, you better think again. The single best oil stock timing indicator is flashing a warning sign...


A bullish percent index (BPI) is a measure of overbought and oversold conditions. A sector is oversold when the index dips below 30, and it's overbought when the index rallies above 80. The best market timing signals, however, come when the BPI reaches truly extreme conditions.

For example, the best buy signals in the oil sector occur when the BPENER dips below 10 – as it did in October, November, and March. Each of those signals generated 25% gains in the AMEX Oil Index in just a few weeks.

The best sell signals in oil are when the BPENER runs near 90 and above. You can see how the two previous sell signals played out on this chart...


Yesterday, the bullish percent index for the energy sector closed above 93. That means 93% of the stocks in the energy sector are trading in bullish chart formations. That's an extreme reading... And it doesn't leave much more room for additional momentum to carry it higher. In fact, it increases the likelihood of a strong selloff in the oil sector.

So even though oil itself looks ready to run higher, the stocks are in the danger zone. We'll likely have a better opportunity to buy them a couple months from now.

Alaska forecasts oil-output drop, more oil spending

ANCHORAGE, Alaska, April 10 (Reuters) - Alaska North Slope oil output is expected to drop 5 percent in the coming fiscal year as its oilfields age, and average prices of its crude oil are expected to fall, causing a dip in income for the state, its Department of Revenue forecast on Friday.

Oil Industry Braces for Drop in U.S. Thirst for Gasoline

WSJ reported today that US gas consumption could be decreasing.

Among those who say U.S. consumption of gasoline has peaked are executives at the world's biggest publicly traded oil company, Exxon Mobil Corp., as well as many private analysts and government energy forecasters.

Oil Production - North Sea

Today the FT reported that the remaining lifespan of the UK’s North Sea oil and gas production risks being halved as the economic crisis has prompted a plunge in exploration in one of the western world’s most important deposits, the industry has warned.

World Oil Production Peaked in 2008

World oil production peaked in 2008 at 81.73 million barrels/day (mbd) shown in the chart below. This oil definition includes crude oil, lease condensate, oil sands and natural gas plant liquids. If natural gas plant liquids are excluded, then the production peak remains in 2008 but at 73.79 mbd. However, if oil sands are also excluded then crude oil and lease condensate production peaked in 2005 at 72.75 mbd.

Oil on Track for a Spike?

2009 predications for oil prices (video)

Oil Rises More Than $2 as Equity Gains Signal Demand May Climb

April 9 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose more than $2 a barrel as equities gained, signaling that some investors expect economies to stabilize, bolstering energy demand.

“When equities bounce, you see oil, industrial metals and grains lift as well,”

Crude oil for May delivery rose $2.86 to settle at $52.24 a barrel at 2:52 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have increased 17 percent this year.

WASTING A GOOD CRISIS: RESULT - $200 OIL

Matt Simmons, the brilliant energy analyst and author of Twilight in the Desert, recently told Reuters, "We are three, six, maybe nine months away from a price shock. We are not talking about three to five years away -- it will be much sooner. These prices now are dangerously low. The lower prices fall, the less oil will be produced and the greater the chance of an oil spike."

In this scenario, low oil prices will continue to take oil fields out of production and reduce exploration. Once prices recover, companies will have trouble gearing back up due to the credit crunch, resulting in production increase delays.
Simmons describes what will happen. "Unless oil demand falls by 10 or 15 percent per annum, which it is not going to do, then we don't need to wait for oil demand to come back before we have a supply crunch." This is on no one’s radar.

Did Goldman Goose Oil?

How Goldman Sachs was at the center of the oil trading fiasco that bankrupted pipeline giant Semgroup. When oil prices spiked last summer to $147 a barrel, the biggest corporate casualty was oil pipeline giant Semgroup Holdings

As Oil and Gas Prices Plunge, Drilling Frenzy Ends - NYT

Plunging oil and gas prices results in less drilling.

Oil Prices....what goes up must come down

Price is depends upon Supply and Demand.

Demand has been falling which has resulted in prices dropping.

Wow ....what a spike up ...and correction down.