Bespoke Investment Group - Think BIG - S&P 500 & All Ten Sectors Overbought
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Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Monday, April 5, 2010
Sunday, April 4, 2010
John Mauldin : Is This a Recovery?
Latest from John Mauldin
Is This a Recovery?
Last week I wrote a letter to my kids trying to explain what Greece meant to them. Reader Ken V wrote: "Great letter, John. Now you should write one for the adults who are retired and don't have the long future your kids do. If the US becomes Greece, things won't recover in time for much of the rest of my life to be more than one grim, dreary period. What is your investment advice for those with roughly a 10-year horizon, not 30-40-50 years?"
A very good question Ken, and one that was asked more than a few times. So today I will touch on that thorny issue, as well as look at the employment numbers for what we see about the potential for an actual recovery.
First, let me say that what I am not doing here is giving you, gentle reader, specific advice. To be able to do that I would need to have specific knowledge of your situation, assets, location, needs, health, etc. But what I will try to do is give you a general assessment of what I see for the economy over the next few years and what the investment climate might look like. I am also going to refer to a lot of previous letters I have written, for those of you who want to do further research.
Saturday, April 3, 2010
Friday, April 2, 2010
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: California USA vs. Ontario Canada - Which State (Province) Is In Worse Shape? Canadian Banks vs. US Banks Comparison
Investment yield
A great quote from Richard Russell on yield:
Today the quest for yield, any kind of "safe" yield, goes on and on. The Fed has taken short rates down to zero. This allows the banks to borrow at extremely low rates and then to buy Treasury bonds at yields near to 4%. This allows the banks to accumulate fat, almost risk free, income. Thus the Fed has taken care of its own.
The big banks are flush with cash again. And all the while Americans are gasping for income like fish out of water. Leading bankers are making more money than ever, while the poor slob on the street is lying awake at night wondering how he's going to make the overdue payment on his home. Of course, his home is "underwater," since his home is worth less than his mortgage.
Traders are Losers
Journal of Finance study concluded "Trading is hazardous to your wealth."
Rates of trades return were about 6.5% less than the overall market. This is due to transaction cost, higher risk, poor money management, stop losses, and position sizing. Furthermore, individuals compete against large investment bankers, and other investors. One stat that is often quoted is that 90% of traders lose. In addition, they are spending lots of time and effort on an unrewarding venture.
There is a better way.
Jim Roger, has been successful on investing, and here is what he says you should do to be successful:
Take your money, put it in Treasury bills or a money-market fund. Just sit back, go to the beach, go to the movies, play checkers, do whatever you want to.
Then something will come along where you know it's right. Take all your money out of the money-market fund, put it in whatever it happens to be and stay with it for three or four or five or 10 years, whatever it is.
You'll know when to sell again, because you'll know more about it than anybody else. Take your money out, put it back in the money-market fund, and wait for the next thing to come along. When it does, you'll make a whole lot of money.
Another successful investor is Warren Buffett. What does he say?
Your default position should always be short-term instruments. And whenever you see anything intelligent to do, you should do it.
It is well known that Buffett follows his own advise and that in Berkshire Hathaway they are sitting on cash and equivalents of more than $46 billion, which is about 27% of the company's current market value.
Now the issue is being patient, waiting for the right opportunity, recognizing it and then acting on it, and again being patient. Like what Buffett has said, you should be investing base on buying a business.
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