Sovereign debt crisis at 'boiling point', warns Bank for International Settlements - Telegraph
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Thursday, April 8, 2010
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Monday, April 5, 2010
Sunday, April 4, 2010
John Mauldin : Is This a Recovery?
Latest from John Mauldin
Is This a Recovery?
Last week I wrote a letter to my kids trying to explain what Greece meant to them. Reader Ken V wrote: "Great letter, John. Now you should write one for the adults who are retired and don't have the long future your kids do. If the US becomes Greece, things won't recover in time for much of the rest of my life to be more than one grim, dreary period. What is your investment advice for those with roughly a 10-year horizon, not 30-40-50 years?"
A very good question Ken, and one that was asked more than a few times. So today I will touch on that thorny issue, as well as look at the employment numbers for what we see about the potential for an actual recovery.
First, let me say that what I am not doing here is giving you, gentle reader, specific advice. To be able to do that I would need to have specific knowledge of your situation, assets, location, needs, health, etc. But what I will try to do is give you a general assessment of what I see for the economy over the next few years and what the investment climate might look like. I am also going to refer to a lot of previous letters I have written, for those of you who want to do further research.
Saturday, April 3, 2010
Friday, April 2, 2010
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: California USA vs. Ontario Canada - Which State (Province) Is In Worse Shape? Canadian Banks vs. US Banks Comparison
Investment yield
A great quote from Richard Russell on yield:
Today the quest for yield, any kind of "safe" yield, goes on and on. The Fed has taken short rates down to zero. This allows the banks to borrow at extremely low rates and then to buy Treasury bonds at yields near to 4%. This allows the banks to accumulate fat, almost risk free, income. Thus the Fed has taken care of its own.
The big banks are flush with cash again. And all the while Americans are gasping for income like fish out of water. Leading bankers are making more money than ever, while the poor slob on the street is lying awake at night wondering how he's going to make the overdue payment on his home. Of course, his home is "underwater," since his home is worth less than his mortgage.
Traders are Losers
Journal of Finance study concluded "Trading is hazardous to your wealth."
Rates of trades return were about 6.5% less than the overall market. This is due to transaction cost, higher risk, poor money management, stop losses, and position sizing. Furthermore, individuals compete against large investment bankers, and other investors. One stat that is often quoted is that 90% of traders lose. In addition, they are spending lots of time and effort on an unrewarding venture.
There is a better way.
Jim Roger, has been successful on investing, and here is what he says you should do to be successful:
Take your money, put it in Treasury bills or a money-market fund. Just sit back, go to the beach, go to the movies, play checkers, do whatever you want to.
Then something will come along where you know it's right. Take all your money out of the money-market fund, put it in whatever it happens to be and stay with it for three or four or five or 10 years, whatever it is.
You'll know when to sell again, because you'll know more about it than anybody else. Take your money out, put it back in the money-market fund, and wait for the next thing to come along. When it does, you'll make a whole lot of money.
Another successful investor is Warren Buffett. What does he say?
Your default position should always be short-term instruments. And whenever you see anything intelligent to do, you should do it.
It is well known that Buffett follows his own advise and that in Berkshire Hathaway they are sitting on cash and equivalents of more than $46 billion, which is about 27% of the company's current market value.
Now the issue is being patient, waiting for the right opportunity, recognizing it and then acting on it, and again being patient. Like what Buffett has said, you should be investing base on buying a business.
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Manufacturing - You can
Manufacturing has always been a costly business, in that there is the process of design, creating molds and masters and assembly line manufacturing. High costs requiring large volume. One offs, you can forget it.
However, think about the inkjet printer.
Now there are specialized manufacturers that offer the ability to “print” simple 3D models. Just upload your model to a website and for only a few bucks, you can have your design created on demand.
The printer works by laying down a thin layer of a polymer, then a thin layer of glue, then another thin layer of polymer, ad infinitum, in a technique borrowed from the conventional inkjet printer – it is akin to printing image on top of image until the ink begins to build up into three dimensions. Until recently, though, the technique has only worked with plastics, and so there were real limits to its applicability.
However, recently Shapeways.com ( http://www.shapeways.com/ ) the availability of stainless steel printing which is ideal for prototyping new mechanical parts, one-of-a-kind art or jewelry projects, or even selling small quantities of such items manufactured on demand.
But the long-term implications are endless. No more discontinued parts. The barriers of entry to a new manufacturing startup just got much lower.
However, think about the inkjet printer.
Now there are specialized manufacturers that offer the ability to “print” simple 3D models. Just upload your model to a website and for only a few bucks, you can have your design created on demand.
The printer works by laying down a thin layer of a polymer, then a thin layer of glue, then another thin layer of polymer, ad infinitum, in a technique borrowed from the conventional inkjet printer – it is akin to printing image on top of image until the ink begins to build up into three dimensions. Until recently, though, the technique has only worked with plastics, and so there were real limits to its applicability.
However, recently Shapeways.com ( http://www.shapeways.com/ ) the availability of stainless steel printing which is ideal for prototyping new mechanical parts, one-of-a-kind art or jewelry projects, or even selling small quantities of such items manufactured on demand.
But the long-term implications are endless. No more discontinued parts. The barriers of entry to a new manufacturing startup just got much lower.
Monday, March 29, 2010
Monday, March 22, 2010
Saturday, March 20, 2010
Friday, March 19, 2010
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Economy Outlook - Marc Faber: We Have a New Gold Standard - CNBC
Marc Faber recommends:
Gold
Oil
Oil companies
Mining companies
XOM
CVX
SLB
Invest - 50% of your portfolio in emerging markets
Avoid US $, US Treasuries and Euro
Economy Outlook - Marc Faber: We Have a New Gold Standard - CNBC
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Gold
Oil
Oil companies
Mining companies
XOM
CVX
SLB
Invest - 50% of your portfolio in emerging markets
Avoid US $, US Treasuries and Euro
Economy Outlook - Marc Faber: We Have a New Gold Standard - CNBC
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Flu Shots....a waste
A recent Canada study concludes flu shots are a waste; hand washing better way to combat virus.
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/canada/story.html?id=2668629
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/canada/story.html?id=2668629
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Monday, March 15, 2010
Sunday, March 14, 2010
The Course of Empire - Thomas Cole
The article on Empires on the Edge of Chaos (click for link to article below) refers to the Five paintings of Thomas Cole (1836) on The Course of Empire.
Thomas Cole captures the theory of the ride and fall of an empire.
There is the moral of all human tales;
'This but the same reheasal of the past
First Freedom, and then Glory: when that fails
Wealth, vice, corruption
First - The Savage State
Followed by - The Arcadian or Pastoral State
Third - The Consummation of Empire
Followed by - Destruction
And Finally ....Desolation
Thomas Cole captures the theory of the ride and fall of an empire.
There is the moral of all human tales;
'This but the same reheasal of the past
First Freedom, and then Glory: when that fails
Wealth, vice, corruption
First - The Savage State
Followed by - The Arcadian or Pastoral State
Third - The Consummation of Empire
Followed by - Destruction
And Finally ....Desolation
Here is the link to the first painting then follow the links to the next four paintings.
Saturday, March 13, 2010
Are you ready? Begin With This List.
From Gary North....
Kicking the can has worked for years and decades. People think short term and are linear in their views. What will happen tomorrow will be a repeat of yesterday.
People miss the changes and really, do not want to see them. They hide their heads in the sands and then become trapped. People feel more comfortable not thinking about risks, or the downside, they rather think all is well and will continue to be well. I had someone tell me, don't tell me it, I do not want to know. "Positive" thinking is not realistic thinking. We do need to be aware of the situation and yet, be positive to do something about it vs giving up.
Right now is the large financial restructuring that is going on, something which has not happened in the past 70 years. It is unfolding right before our eyes. There will be changes, and I expect some significant changes coming. Changes that will surprise us all.
What will be the outcome? We need to think about the risks and right now they are high and plan accordingly.
Here is an article from Gary North....
Make a List of The Most Valuable Assets You Own. Begin With This List.
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Kicking the can has worked for years and decades. People think short term and are linear in their views. What will happen tomorrow will be a repeat of yesterday.
People miss the changes and really, do not want to see them. They hide their heads in the sands and then become trapped. People feel more comfortable not thinking about risks, or the downside, they rather think all is well and will continue to be well. I had someone tell me, don't tell me it, I do not want to know. "Positive" thinking is not realistic thinking. We do need to be aware of the situation and yet, be positive to do something about it vs giving up.
Right now is the large financial restructuring that is going on, something which has not happened in the past 70 years. It is unfolding right before our eyes. There will be changes, and I expect some significant changes coming. Changes that will surprise us all.
What will be the outcome? We need to think about the risks and right now they are high and plan accordingly.
Here is an article from Gary North....
Make a List of The Most Valuable Assets You Own. Begin With This List.
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World's Oldest Showgirl Dorothy Dale Kloss Still Kicking With the Fabulous Palm Spring Follies - AARP Bulletin Today
I am impressed....oldest showgirl still is dancing at 85.
This links to AARP, however, I do not support this group, their policies hurt the economy, and the people, but the group, AARP does well as a result.
World's Oldest Showgirl Dorothy Dale Kloss Still Kicking With the Fabulous Palm Spring Follies - AARP Bulletin Today
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This links to AARP, however, I do not support this group, their policies hurt the economy, and the people, but the group, AARP does well as a result.
World's Oldest Showgirl Dorothy Dale Kloss Still Kicking With the Fabulous Palm Spring Follies - AARP Bulletin Today
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Seeds of War
Good article.....the seeds have been sown. History does repeat.
What sort of leader will again make the promises that he can fix the problems. Those that did in the past, made a pretty big mess of it. But remember, the people wanted change.
Seeds of War
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What sort of leader will again make the promises that he can fix the problems. Those that did in the past, made a pretty big mess of it. But remember, the people wanted change.
Seeds of War
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Municipal Deflation: Consequences of the Greatest Speculation
Mankind is not very smart. They repeat the past mistakes. We have done it....and will continue to follow the same path as 1930's and 1940's.
Things could get messy, if things are not changed. We are in a state of denial. The people do not want to hear the risks and the problems that need to be fixed and the changes that it requires. The politicians play along promising what they can not do. ......the problems grow deep and bigger each day, week, month and year. At sometime, there will be a breaking point. It will be fast and hard.
Remember the fall of 2008....the financial melt down. Very few saw it coming, and it was fast and hard. That was the first shoe that dropped.
Municipal Deflation: Consequences of the Greatest Speculation
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Things could get messy, if things are not changed. We are in a state of denial. The people do not want to hear the risks and the problems that need to be fixed and the changes that it requires. The politicians play along promising what they can not do. ......the problems grow deep and bigger each day, week, month and year. At sometime, there will be a breaking point. It will be fast and hard.
Remember the fall of 2008....the financial melt down. Very few saw it coming, and it was fast and hard. That was the first shoe that dropped.
Municipal Deflation: Consequences of the Greatest Speculation
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Value Investing....Notes from the book Margin of Safety by Klarman
"Margin of Safety � Risk-Averse Value Investing Strategies for the Thoughtful Investor" is a name of a book written by Seth A. Klarman, a successful value investor and President of the Baupost Group, an investment firm in Boston.
This book is no longer published and sometimes can be found on eBay for more than $1000 (some consider it a collectible item).
Here is the link to the Notes on this great book:
http://www.fool.com/community/pod/2006/060504.htm
This book is no longer published and sometimes can be found on eBay for more than $1000 (some consider it a collectible item).
Here is the link to the Notes on this great book:
http://www.fool.com/community/pod/2006/060504.htm
Complexity and Collapse: - Empires on the Edge of Chao
The attached link is to an excellent article by Niall Ferguson from the current edition of Foreign Affairs, titled “Complexity and Collapse – Empires on the Edge of Chaos.”
In his article, Ferguson lays out the thesis that, contrary to the academic version of the life cycles of empires – that they rise, mature, rot, and ultimately self-destruct over a long period of time, that actually, the seeds of destruction for empires are planted, germinate, and are reaped over a shockingly short period of time.
Examples: one generation for Rome and just 10 years for the Brits
Here is the link:
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article24874.htm
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Outlook for AAA Rated Govts. - the grim rater
The Grim Rater - the outlook for AAA rated govts.....status is in question once debt service payments exceed 10% of revenues
http://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15661889
http://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15661889
Natural Gas Glut ....Unconventional Success
From the Economist....An Unconventional Glut
http://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15661889
http://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15661889
Friday, March 12, 2010
Maryland's Mobile Millionaires - They left Maryland
As noted the the famous book, Atlas Shrugged, higher tax rates changes people's behaviors.
Maryland has found out.....as a result of higher tax rates, there are now less wealthy people to tax.
Here is link to WSJ's article
Maryland's Mobile Millionaires - WSJ.com
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Maryland has found out.....as a result of higher tax rates, there are now less wealthy people to tax.
Here is link to WSJ's article
Maryland's Mobile Millionaires - WSJ.com
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Thursday, March 11, 2010
What Country....What Currency?
Italy has its own problems.....corruption.
Germany and Canada looks pretty good on this graph.
But really, how good is that?
I think there are other countries that are better.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Friday, March 5, 2010
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
Couple of Good Investment Points
- One of the most important lessons from investment history is to Not buy stocks trading at peak multiples of peak earnings, in particular those coming from cost reduction programs
- Earnings that are driven by cost cutting, rather than revenue growth is not substainable.
- Investors should pay high P/E multiples only for stocks that have growth potential - higher revenues and cash flow - not increased earnings due to cost reductions.
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