The dollar could give up its unenviable title Euro is in trouble....see what Money and Markets have say about it.
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Saturday, January 2, 2010
Sunday, December 27, 2009
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Market Forecast for 2010
From AlphaKing Investment Newsletter.....a depressing forecast
*******************
For 2009 we forecasted the mother of all bear market rallies, to retrace
50-63% of the losses of the bear market that began October, 2007.
Archive: http://alphaking.com/portfolios/archive/?id=727
In 2008, our Index Long/Short Portfolio earned 70%.
We will follow the major intermediate-term trend wherever it may lead.
We hope you enjoy our 2010 forecast:
Welcome to the 2010 AlphaKing forecast issue. As always, we believe strongly
that the only opinion traders and investors should be listening to when it
comes to their trading and investment decisions is that of the stock market.
We go long as intermediate rallies unfold and short as intermediate bear
corrective phases land. So please keep that in mind as you read our thoughts
on what we expect to see in 2010, as following the trends is the optimal and
safest way to make money over the long term.
2010 should be a tumultuous year as the great bear returns. We see the action
of 2009 as a bear market partial recovery bounce after the first down-leg of
the great bear ended in March, 2009. Once the current rally exhausts itself,
we expect the second down-leg of the great bear to land, and one that should
be of equal length, or longer than, the brutal swoon of October 2007-March
2009. The technical action during the recovery bounce run-up - the post March
2009 rally - speaks strongly of the rally being nothing more than a sucker
advance designed to trap the unwary into believing the bear was over and a new
bull move underway. Such action is the classic set-up to a brutal reversal of
fortunes that few are expecting. There are also a couple of major fundamental
reasons why we believe the bull case to be all bull.
1) The debt de-leveraging process is for real, persistent, and no where near
complete. For the economic recovery to stick we would need to see not only an
end to the de-leveraging process, but also a return to debt expansion, and
such a nirvana turnaround is a very long way from happening. Banks remain
unwilling to lend; the economy continues to provide too much supply; which
should all lead to more bankruptcies, more unemployment, and falling prices
till the de-leveraging process completes and the economy reaches a balance of
supply matching demand.
2) Aging baby-boomers, like banks, continue to hoard cash as they increase
savings, and remain very picky consumers, avoiding big ticket items like the
plague. Since consumers are 70% of the economy, and large ticket industries
such as automakers and homebuilders need a resumption of past buying frenzies
just to be able to stay in business, they are hardly likely to step forward to
borrow and spend on mass debt, which means, yes, it is different this time
around and the financial day of reckoning is here now that the financial
musical chair song has ended.
3) Taxes are going up next year, and way up in 2011 and beyond, while
government deficit spending increases dramatically as money is shifted from
the haves to the have nots. Rising taxes in the face of rising unemployment,
along with increased in trade protections, were hallmark of past depressions,
and repeating things over and over while expecting a different outcome is the
definition of insanity. Those who forget history are destined to repeat it.
4) Government control of the economy never works, as the 1930s US/Europe, post
1989 Japan, and entire Soviet experience can attest to. Raw capitalism where
winners can climb on the backs of the losers is the best way to grow the
economy as a whole, and if we want to be all the same then we can be, for we
can all be poor and unemployed. We live in a world where losers are not
allowed to exist, thus winners will diminish in numbers as their money is
whisked away to help the growing numbers of have nots. Since politics is a
numbers game, the dwindling number of winners will be outvoted by such a wide
margin that I’m afraid our economic fate is sealed, or soon will be, on the
backs of unintended consequences of good intentions.
So for our expectations in 2010:
1) The stock market should see a major life-changing peak, somewhere between
Dow 10,500 (here) and 12,000, and then crash and crash and crash as the March
2009 lows get taken out in a big way.
2) We should see a complete unwinding of the USD carry-trade, which we aptly
call the lemming trade. While selling US dollars to buy gold and other
commodities, as well as stocks and all things China were the major trends of
2009, next year should see the exact opposite, as the race begins to grab
dollars as the imploding debt bubble leaves too many individuals,
corporations, institutions, and countries swimming naked and overexposed to
debt backed by too little capital. Gold should get cut in half. Oil should
revisit and surpass the $35 per barrel area. China will implode, leading stock
markets around the world into a crashing retest of the March lows, which will
likely be breached by a significant margin.
3) 2010 should be the year of currency crises, with the British Pound the
crown jewel of pending disasters, with the EURO not far behind in the race to
the bottom.
4) Unemployment will rise to the very unexpected 12-14% range, creating an
“off with their heads” mentality among voters as we head into the mid-term
elections later in the year.
5) Voters will - eventually - balk at governments giving money to failing
institutions, which means some very big name financial companies will go the
way of the Dodo. AIG, Citibank, Chrysler, are sure to be in the crosshairs of
such former too-big-to-fail companies who run out of money and time, though
they will likely be the tip of a very large financial iceberg. Once one goes,
all of them will suffer a collapse as investors shoot first and ask questions
later, leaving each company struggling to show they have the means to survive.
I could go on, but basically what we are facing is the reality of what was
threatened by the 2007-2009 bear market collapse, only this time no one will
be fooled into believing anyone can save us, as the FED and government lose
all credibility as all attempts to stem the financial blood-letting fail. A
dark prediction, yes, though the good news is that eventually, once the
winners have been separated from the losers and the debt de-leveraging problem
gets defaulted away, the economy can start to grow again and the future can
once again be expected to be brighter than the past.
If the economy and financial markets want to prove this analysis flawed, and
dead wrong - which given the dark nature of our expectation we BETTER be wrong
- then we have no problem making money on the long side as we follow the stock
markets higher. As we always say, and we repeat here again, the only opinion
one should listen to is that of the stock market. Just keep in mind the
potential severity of the situation facing us I’ve just outlined if indeed the
stock market begins to slide, as failing to follow those trends could have
life changing consequences, and I don’t want any of us following those
lemmings over the day of reckoning cliff.
Now try and have a great weekend and stay away from ledges and knives!
401K investors should be invested in money market funds.
Kevin Wilde, Chief Trading Strategist, AlphaKing.com
*******************
For 2009 we forecasted the mother of all bear market rallies, to retrace
50-63% of the losses of the bear market that began October, 2007.
Archive: http://alphaking.com/portfolios/archive/?id=727
In 2008, our Index Long/Short Portfolio earned 70%.
We will follow the major intermediate-term trend wherever it may lead.
We hope you enjoy our 2010 forecast:
Welcome to the 2010 AlphaKing forecast issue. As always, we believe strongly
that the only opinion traders and investors should be listening to when it
comes to their trading and investment decisions is that of the stock market.
We go long as intermediate rallies unfold and short as intermediate bear
corrective phases land. So please keep that in mind as you read our thoughts
on what we expect to see in 2010, as following the trends is the optimal and
safest way to make money over the long term.
2010 should be a tumultuous year as the great bear returns. We see the action
of 2009 as a bear market partial recovery bounce after the first down-leg of
the great bear ended in March, 2009. Once the current rally exhausts itself,
we expect the second down-leg of the great bear to land, and one that should
be of equal length, or longer than, the brutal swoon of October 2007-March
2009. The technical action during the recovery bounce run-up - the post March
2009 rally - speaks strongly of the rally being nothing more than a sucker
advance designed to trap the unwary into believing the bear was over and a new
bull move underway. Such action is the classic set-up to a brutal reversal of
fortunes that few are expecting. There are also a couple of major fundamental
reasons why we believe the bull case to be all bull.
1) The debt de-leveraging process is for real, persistent, and no where near
complete. For the economic recovery to stick we would need to see not only an
end to the de-leveraging process, but also a return to debt expansion, and
such a nirvana turnaround is a very long way from happening. Banks remain
unwilling to lend; the economy continues to provide too much supply; which
should all lead to more bankruptcies, more unemployment, and falling prices
till the de-leveraging process completes and the economy reaches a balance of
supply matching demand.
2) Aging baby-boomers, like banks, continue to hoard cash as they increase
savings, and remain very picky consumers, avoiding big ticket items like the
plague. Since consumers are 70% of the economy, and large ticket industries
such as automakers and homebuilders need a resumption of past buying frenzies
just to be able to stay in business, they are hardly likely to step forward to
borrow and spend on mass debt, which means, yes, it is different this time
around and the financial day of reckoning is here now that the financial
musical chair song has ended.
3) Taxes are going up next year, and way up in 2011 and beyond, while
government deficit spending increases dramatically as money is shifted from
the haves to the have nots. Rising taxes in the face of rising unemployment,
along with increased in trade protections, were hallmark of past depressions,
and repeating things over and over while expecting a different outcome is the
definition of insanity. Those who forget history are destined to repeat it.
4) Government control of the economy never works, as the 1930s US/Europe, post
1989 Japan, and entire Soviet experience can attest to. Raw capitalism where
winners can climb on the backs of the losers is the best way to grow the
economy as a whole, and if we want to be all the same then we can be, for we
can all be poor and unemployed. We live in a world where losers are not
allowed to exist, thus winners will diminish in numbers as their money is
whisked away to help the growing numbers of have nots. Since politics is a
numbers game, the dwindling number of winners will be outvoted by such a wide
margin that I’m afraid our economic fate is sealed, or soon will be, on the
backs of unintended consequences of good intentions.
So for our expectations in 2010:
1) The stock market should see a major life-changing peak, somewhere between
Dow 10,500 (here) and 12,000, and then crash and crash and crash as the March
2009 lows get taken out in a big way.
2) We should see a complete unwinding of the USD carry-trade, which we aptly
call the lemming trade. While selling US dollars to buy gold and other
commodities, as well as stocks and all things China were the major trends of
2009, next year should see the exact opposite, as the race begins to grab
dollars as the imploding debt bubble leaves too many individuals,
corporations, institutions, and countries swimming naked and overexposed to
debt backed by too little capital. Gold should get cut in half. Oil should
revisit and surpass the $35 per barrel area. China will implode, leading stock
markets around the world into a crashing retest of the March lows, which will
likely be breached by a significant margin.
3) 2010 should be the year of currency crises, with the British Pound the
crown jewel of pending disasters, with the EURO not far behind in the race to
the bottom.
4) Unemployment will rise to the very unexpected 12-14% range, creating an
“off with their heads” mentality among voters as we head into the mid-term
elections later in the year.
5) Voters will - eventually - balk at governments giving money to failing
institutions, which means some very big name financial companies will go the
way of the Dodo. AIG, Citibank, Chrysler, are sure to be in the crosshairs of
such former too-big-to-fail companies who run out of money and time, though
they will likely be the tip of a very large financial iceberg. Once one goes,
all of them will suffer a collapse as investors shoot first and ask questions
later, leaving each company struggling to show they have the means to survive.
I could go on, but basically what we are facing is the reality of what was
threatened by the 2007-2009 bear market collapse, only this time no one will
be fooled into believing anyone can save us, as the FED and government lose
all credibility as all attempts to stem the financial blood-letting fail. A
dark prediction, yes, though the good news is that eventually, once the
winners have been separated from the losers and the debt de-leveraging problem
gets defaulted away, the economy can start to grow again and the future can
once again be expected to be brighter than the past.
If the economy and financial markets want to prove this analysis flawed, and
dead wrong - which given the dark nature of our expectation we BETTER be wrong
- then we have no problem making money on the long side as we follow the stock
markets higher. As we always say, and we repeat here again, the only opinion
one should listen to is that of the stock market. Just keep in mind the
potential severity of the situation facing us I’ve just outlined if indeed the
stock market begins to slide, as failing to follow those trends could have
life changing consequences, and I don’t want any of us following those
lemmings over the day of reckoning cliff.
Now try and have a great weekend and stay away from ledges and knives!
401K investors should be invested in money market funds.
Kevin Wilde, Chief Trading Strategist, AlphaKing.com
Friday, December 18, 2009
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Friday, December 11, 2009
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Friday, November 20, 2009
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Gotta Wonder ...Still Learning..
Hey!
How many months have we heard the economy is sinking, govt debt increasing / expanding, unemployment up, housing down etc??? Therefore, the stock market would be falling.
Makes sense....
However, from March 09...the market has increased significantly...and continues breaking to new highs!
Where are we? What is going on?
Gold is as well breaking to new highs?
Thinking this situation is very very different.
US$ are not worth much. Therefore the conversion to anything that is tangible (exclude US real estate - that is over priced).
Real assets - not paper
I have been sitting on the side lines....expecting a pull back.
How many months have we heard the economy is sinking, govt debt increasing / expanding, unemployment up, housing down etc??? Therefore, the stock market would be falling.
Makes sense....
However, from March 09...the market has increased significantly...and continues breaking to new highs!
Where are we? What is going on?
Gold is as well breaking to new highs?
Thinking this situation is very very different.
US$ are not worth much. Therefore the conversion to anything that is tangible (exclude US real estate - that is over priced).
Real assets - not paper
I have been sitting on the side lines....expecting a pull back.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Monday, November 9, 2009
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Monday, November 2, 2009
Sunday, November 1, 2009
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Friday, October 30, 2009
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Friday, October 23, 2009
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Friday, October 16, 2009
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Monday, October 12, 2009
No Country for Old Jobs: 10 Charts Showing the Fragile Recovery. Home Sales, Buying versus Renting, Unemployment, and Real Economy Data. » Dr. Housing Bubble Blog
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Saturday, October 10, 2009
COT - Weekly Summary
S&P - Current- Long; Nov 2 - Bearish
Oil - Current - Flat; Oct 19 - Bearish
Gold - Current - Flat
Natural Gas - Current - Flat; Oct 19 - Bearish
Oil - Current - Flat; Oct 19 - Bearish
Gold - Current - Flat
Natural Gas - Current - Flat; Oct 19 - Bearish
Friday, October 9, 2009
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Sunday, October 4, 2009
Are we heading the right way?
From Robert McHugh
https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/Default.asp
The Labor Department reported Friday that Unemployment for September rose to 9.8 percent. One out of ten Americans who are seeking work, are out of work. If laid off full time workers settling for part-time work are included, the unemployment rate in the U.S. is now up to 17 percent. If we include discouraged workers who are no longer seeking employment (they are not included in the Labor Department's unemployment figures), then the unemployment figures rise to 10.1 percent and 17.3 percent.
The problem is getting worse, and evolving into a crisis of Family Household income. Consumers account for 70 percent of all spending, of GDP. The Labor Department reported Friday that 263,000 more people lost jobs in September, non-farm payroll job losses, but actually the number was even worse than reported because the Labor Department reduced the actual number of job losses by "let's pretend" jobs that they imagined in their deepest melatonin dreams were created, they think, by start-up businesses to the tune of 34,000. The actual number of non-farm jobs losses were 297,000 if you ignore this fantasy and get real. The U.S. needs to add 150,000 new jobs each month to simply accommodate population growth. So the short-fall from break-even in September was actually closer to half a million jobs. Even government jobs fell 53,000 in September.
At this moment, 36 million Americans are on Food Stamps. One out of every six jobs in the U.S. feeds off the Health Care Industry. One sixth of our Gross Domestic Product is spent on sickness, either prevention, detection, treatment, or insurance. Is this a formula for prosperity in any nation?
https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/Default.asp
The Labor Department reported Friday that Unemployment for September rose to 9.8 percent. One out of ten Americans who are seeking work, are out of work. If laid off full time workers settling for part-time work are included, the unemployment rate in the U.S. is now up to 17 percent. If we include discouraged workers who are no longer seeking employment (they are not included in the Labor Department's unemployment figures), then the unemployment figures rise to 10.1 percent and 17.3 percent.
The problem is getting worse, and evolving into a crisis of Family Household income. Consumers account for 70 percent of all spending, of GDP. The Labor Department reported Friday that 263,000 more people lost jobs in September, non-farm payroll job losses, but actually the number was even worse than reported because the Labor Department reduced the actual number of job losses by "let's pretend" jobs that they imagined in their deepest melatonin dreams were created, they think, by start-up businesses to the tune of 34,000. The actual number of non-farm jobs losses were 297,000 if you ignore this fantasy and get real. The U.S. needs to add 150,000 new jobs each month to simply accommodate population growth. So the short-fall from break-even in September was actually closer to half a million jobs. Even government jobs fell 53,000 in September.
At this moment, 36 million Americans are on Food Stamps. One out of every six jobs in the U.S. feeds off the Health Care Industry. One sixth of our Gross Domestic Product is spent on sickness, either prevention, detection, treatment, or insurance. Is this a formula for prosperity in any nation?
Friday, October 2, 2009
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Saturday, September 26, 2009
Friday, September 25, 2009
Friday, August 28, 2009
Bull's still running....
Ben Bernanke nearly collapsed a lung patting himself on the back last week at the annual Jackson Hole economic wonk confab. According to the Great One himself, it is only through the heroic efforts of the Fed and Treasury that the financial sun continues to climb above the horizon each morning.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Ben is learning....
"Back in 2002, before he became chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke claimed that if short-term interest rates fell to zero, a central bank still had the ultimate weapon: printing money by purchasing government bonds. Having now actually tried quantitative easing himself, Mr Bernanke is discovering its limits."
― Economist Magazine August 13, 2009
― Economist Magazine August 13, 2009
Saturday, August 15, 2009
What's Next ? Inflation or Deflation or ?
There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit (debt) expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.
- Ludwig von Mises
- Ludwig von Mises
Friday, August 14, 2009
Monday, August 10, 2009
Friday, August 7, 2009
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Greenspan Reports that the Recovery is in progress
Collapse, I think, is now off the table,” said Alan Greenspan over the weekend, pedal to the metal. “I’m pretty sure we’ve already seen the bottom… it’s clear that we’ve turned, perhaps in the middle of last month, the middle of July.”
“I do think it is possible that we could get a second wave down,” he cautioned, literally seconds later. “But the important issue is if we don't -- and I think the probability is that we won't -- that we are close to stabilization.”
So the worst is over, unless it gets bad again.
From Agora Financial 5 min
“I do think it is possible that we could get a second wave down,” he cautioned, literally seconds later. “But the important issue is if we don't -- and I think the probability is that we won't -- that we are close to stabilization.”
So the worst is over, unless it gets bad again.
From Agora Financial 5 min
Sunday, August 2, 2009
Time to Buy?
It is amazing that anyone would go long an equity market with a reported P/E multiple of 700x but that is indeed what we have on our hands. The end of the recession and the onset of a sustainable recovery, as we saw in 2002, are not the same thing. So this could still end badly but we will await confirmation signs that this is more than a very flashy bear market rally before shifting gears.” ― David Rosenberg, Chief Economist Gluskin, Sheff in a note to clients July 31
Robert Shiller on Charlie Rose
Good interview
Robert Shiller has written a book, Animal Spirits. Looks like an interesting read, it helps explain the economy and markets.
Robert Shiller on Charlie Rose
Posted using ShareThis
Robert Shiller has written a book, Animal Spirits. Looks like an interesting read, it helps explain the economy and markets.
Robert Shiller on Charlie Rose
Posted using ShareThis
Saturday, August 1, 2009
Good Investment for now
"Until opportunities, major ones, present
themselves to me, my money is 100%
parked in bank money-market accounts."
- Irwin Yamamoto
themselves to me, my money is 100%
parked in bank money-market accounts."
- Irwin Yamamoto
The Great Reflation Experiment
From John Mauldin - July 31, 2009
By Tony Boeckh and Rob Boeckh
The Crash of 2008/9 should be seen as yet another consequence of long-term, persistent US inflationary policies. Inflation doesn't stand still. It tends to establish a self-reinforcing cycle that accelerates until the excesses in money and credit become so extreme that a correction is triggered. The bigger the inflation, the bigger the correction. Once a dependency on credit expansion is well established, correcting the underlying imbalances becomes extremely difficult. Reflation has occurred after each major correction, and this one is proving no exception. Return to discipline in the current environment would be too painful and dangerous. Once on the financial roller coaster, it is very hard to get off. Moreover, the oscillations between peaks and valleys become increasingly large and unstable.
Policymakers, money managers, and most forecasters have argued that the crash was a "black swan" event, meaning that it had an extremely low probability of occurrence. That is grossly misleading, as it implies that the crash was so far beyond the realm of normal probabilities that it was unreasonable to expect anyone to have foreseen it. That argument has been used to justify the widespread complacency that prevailed in the years leading up to the crash. Policymakers are still failing to recognize the systemic causes of the crash and seem to believe that enhanced regulation will prevent history from repeating. While it is true that regulators were asleep at the switch or looking the other way, they were not the cause.
The Debt Super Cycle
The real culprit is the US debt super cycle, which has operated for decades, mostly in a remarkably benign manner.
Link to article
By Tony Boeckh and Rob Boeckh
The Crash of 2008/9 should be seen as yet another consequence of long-term, persistent US inflationary policies. Inflation doesn't stand still. It tends to establish a self-reinforcing cycle that accelerates until the excesses in money and credit become so extreme that a correction is triggered. The bigger the inflation, the bigger the correction. Once a dependency on credit expansion is well established, correcting the underlying imbalances becomes extremely difficult. Reflation has occurred after each major correction, and this one is proving no exception. Return to discipline in the current environment would be too painful and dangerous. Once on the financial roller coaster, it is very hard to get off. Moreover, the oscillations between peaks and valleys become increasingly large and unstable.
Policymakers, money managers, and most forecasters have argued that the crash was a "black swan" event, meaning that it had an extremely low probability of occurrence. That is grossly misleading, as it implies that the crash was so far beyond the realm of normal probabilities that it was unreasonable to expect anyone to have foreseen it. That argument has been used to justify the widespread complacency that prevailed in the years leading up to the crash. Policymakers are still failing to recognize the systemic causes of the crash and seem to believe that enhanced regulation will prevent history from repeating. While it is true that regulators were asleep at the switch or looking the other way, they were not the cause.
The Debt Super Cycle
The real culprit is the US debt super cycle, which has operated for decades, mostly in a remarkably benign manner.
Link to article
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